Document Details

Document Type : Thesis 
Document Title :
Assessment of coupled global climate models for seasonal climate predictability over Saudi Arabia
تقييم نماذج المناخ العالمي المقترنة لتوقع المناخي الفصلي فوق المملكة العربية السعودية
 
Subject : Department of Meteorology 
Document Language : Arabic 
Abstract : This work describes the assessment of Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) for seasonal climate prediction over Saudi Arabia for the period 1981-2002. The 22-year hindcast experiments for the season November to January (NDJ) are performed by using the AOGCM of the Seoul National University (SNU) model, and the results are compared with observational gridded data as well as with the datasets of seven fully coupled models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) project. The ability of the individual models is revealed through various statistical methods. The precipitation and temperature analyses show that the SNU model performed better than the DEMETER models in terms of mean climatology, bias, annual cycle and variability. However, it has relatively low anomaly correlation over the study area. The signal-to-noise ratio shows that the SNU model and the DEMETR models have high predictability skills over the tropical region; however none of the models shows significant predictability skills over Saudi Arabia. Improvements in the SNU model, such as increasing horizontal resolution and vertical levels, improving parameterization and model initialization, may lead to better seasonal climate predictability in the study area. 
Supervisor : Dr. Mansour Almazroui 
Thesis Type : Master Thesis 
Publishing Year : 1433 AH
2012 AD 
Co-Supervisor : dr. Nazrul Islam 
Added Date : Wednesday, May 30, 2012 

Researchers

Researcher Name (Arabic)Researcher Name (English)Researcher TypeDr GradeEmail
محمد أزهر احسان اللهEhsan, Muhammad AzharResearcherMaster 

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